South Africa’s two telecommunications giants, MTN and Vodacom, are jostling for supremacy in Africa. They are the biggest mobile operators on the continent by some margin. MTN operates in more countries (16 in Africa), but Vodacom is active in the biggest markets (Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia), with the exception of Nigeria, which remains the jewel in the MTN crown. Both companies are in the process of the telco-to-fintech evolution (a shift from selling voice and data bytes to managing financial ecosystems).

But local realities in Africa can raise complications. One of these arose recently in one of the continent’s most developed markets. The September ruling of the High Court of Kenya, that Vodacom’s bid for control of Safaricom contravened Kenyan law was a significant strategic and operational setback for the South African giant. But the same court’s ruling earlier this week that the appeal would be fast-tracked offers a glimmer of hope for the deal.

If it goes through, the $1.9 billion offer, for a 15% stake in Safaricom held by the government of Kenya, would, together with an uncontested 5% stake purchased at the same time from the United Kingdom’s VodaPhone, give Vodacom an outright majority shareholding in the east African powerhouse.

Safaricom controls 70% of the Kenyan market and is currently the only private licence holder in Ethiopia. That country, with its 120 million potential consumers, is currently in the process of moving away from a state monopoly telecoms system and is regarded as “the last frontier” in African telecommunications.

In March this year, Safaricom became the first corporate entity in east Africa to surpass an annual revenue of $3 billion. The company is best-known for pioneering the M-Pesa mobile money app. Launched in 2007, it is widely recognised as the world’s most successful mobile money service and a global pioneer in financial inclusion.

Before M-Pesa, 80% of Kenyans were unbanked, leaving them reliant on carrying risky physical cash or using expensive, slow courier services to send money to family in rural areas. Today, M-Pesa handles more than 37 billion transactions annually, worth $300 billion in 2025, roughly twice Kenya’s GDP by value.

M-Pesa has been co-owned by Vodacom since 2020. M-Pesa dovetails neatly with Vodacom’s ambition to recast itself as an all-in-one financial technology company. Vodacom’s “Vision 2030” strategy sees the company moving “beyond mobile” and developing a range of high-margin fintech products, including micro-insurance, invoice financing, digital point-of-sale infrastructure, and wealth management.

Vodacom earned R16.8 billion from fintech products in its last financial year, an increase of 20% on the previous year.

If the transaction is approved, Vodacom will be able to bring Safaricom onto its consolidated balance sheet, which will see it edge ahead of its great South African rival, MTN, in terms of both revenue and market capitalisation.

The opposition to the deal has been led by a local academic and a political activist, Professor Fredrick Onyango Ogola and Tony Gachoka.

In their petition to the High Court, they argued that laws mandating public participation and scrutiny had been by-passed, that the pricing framework for Safaricom’s valuation was arbitrary, and that the deal will prevent Kenyans from enjoying future upside through the government’s shareholding.

The matter has implications that go beyond corporate dealmaking and could affect Kenya’s volatile democracy. Payment for Safaricom is currently frozen, with the $1.9 billion paid by Vodacom remaining in the Kenyan government’s account. However, if the High Court orders it to be refunded it could shatter public finance planning and undermine the stability of the Kenyan shilling.